Here’s the One Move Financial Experts Say Works Instead

On a recent episode of How to Money, a listener named Suzanne asked whether she should track her credit card rewards as part of her monthly budget. The hosts pushed back hard. I’ve been studying personal finance podcasts and household budgeting frameworks for several years now, and this debate captures a recurring trap. Rewards, they argued, are “semi-volatile” and unpredictable from year to year. One host put numbers to it: “some years you might earn $2,000, some years you might earn $3,500 based on your spending, based on a significant bonus from one card.”

Quick Read

• This advice applies to households with lumpy or unpredictable spending, those earning rewards in non-liquid points, or anyone tempted to chase bonus spending to hit reward targets.

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The stakes are simple. If you build $3,500 of rewards into next year’s spending plan and only earn $2,000, you have a $1,500 hole. Worse, the host warned, “I would be afraid that, ‘Oh, we’re not getting as many rewards,’ then does that incentivize you to potentially spend again?” That is the trap: a budgeting habit designed to capture “free money” can quietly push you toward chasing rewards by spending more.

The verdict: the hosts are right, and the math is unforgiving

This advice is sound, and the reason is volatility plus a thin national savings cushion. The U.S. personal savings rate sat at just 4% in the first quarter of 2026, down from 5.2% a year earlier and 6.2% in early 2024. Households have less margin for a budgeting mistake than they did two years ago.

Now stack that against rewards volatility. Imagine a household pencils in $3,500 of rewards as income, splits it across travel and groceries, and books a trip on that basis. The next year a sign-up bonus does not repeat. Rewards drop to $2,000. The $1,500 shortfall has to come from somewhere, usually a credit line that charges interest at a rate well above any cashback percentage. The reward becomes the bait that justifies the debt.

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There is a second problem the hosts flagged: a lot of rewards never show up as cash. Many come as points for hotels and flights, which do not deposit into checking and cannot be applied to your electric bill. Treating illiquid points as line-item income is a category error.

Two ways to actually use the rewards

The hosts offered two clean approaches. Pick the one that fits how you already think about money.

1. Shrink the category where the rewards consistently flow. If you reliably earn $1,200 a year in travel points, you can shave roughly that much off your travel cash budget and redirect it to investing or savings. The rewards effectively become a subsidy on a specific line. This works only if the rewards are predictable in that category, which is why it fits people with stable spending patterns and a single primary card.

2. Bank rewards as a flexible miscellaneous buffer. Let them accumulate and deploy them when something unexpected hits. As the host explained, “if there’s a big miscellaneous expense like that, I will then apply the credit card rewards to the miscellaneous category because I’m not going to review that at the end of the year and say, oh, I need to create a new line item for that.” The upside, in his words, is the freedom to “take advantage of an opportunity if there’s a sale” without rewriting your budget.

The variable that decides between them is how steady your spending is. If your travel, dining, or grocery spend is roughly the same every month, approach one converts rewards into a real raise. If your spending is lumpy and surprises are frequent, approach two is the safer fit because it absorbs the very shocks that blow up rigid budgets.

What to actually do this week

Three steps, in order:

1. Pull your last two full years of rewards earnings from each card’s year-end summary. If the gap between the high year and the low year is more than a couple hundred dollars, you have confirmed the volatility problem and should not budget rewards as income.

2. Decide whether your spending in any single rewards category is steady enough to trim. If yes, cut that cash category by the conservative low-year reward total.

3. If your spending is uneven, park rewards untouched and treat the balance as your miscellaneous-expense reserve for the year.

Rewards are icing, not flour. Build the cake first, then let the icing fall where it helps most. As the host said to close the segment: “different strokes for different folks.”

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