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  • US Economic Outlook Significantly Stronger Than You’d Think

    US Economic Outlook Significantly Stronger Than You’d Think

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    The US economy isn’t doing as well as you think—it’s doing even better. While mainstream media outlets and grocery prices may make you feel that the US economy is struggling, the data points to something different. Inflation is getting under control, the Fed is about to lower rates, recession risks could be shrinking, and a long-term growth trend is emerging. The American economy is leading what Joe Brusuelas calls the “global recovery.

    Named 2023 “Best Rate Forecaster” by Bloomberg, Joe has an unmatched view of the economy at a macro and microeconomic level. Today, we’re talking to Joe about the state of the US economy and why it’s outperforming global players like China. Joe shares the “secret sauce” that is helping the US take center stage in global economic growth, which could keep us on course to see continued economic success for years to come.

    But, with China’s economy showing cracks, the Middle East conflict getting more tense by the day, and the risk of recession still top of mind, what’s next for the US economy? Joe gives his economic outlook and shares the most significant risks the US economy could face, plus why he sees a BIG Fed rate cut coming in 2025.

    Dave:
    We hear a lot of negative things about the US economy or at least a lot of social media and let’s face it, the regular media pushes a lot of doom and gloom stories about what’s going on fiscally and economically in this country. But today we’re going to take a step back and look at how the United States economy today in late 2024 compares to the rest of the world and we’re going to be bringing on one of the best economists and forecasters in the country to share what he thinks is in store for the broader American economy, not just for this year, but well into the future.

    Dave:
    Hey everyone, it’s Dave. Welcome to On the Market, and today we’re going to be joined again by Joe Brusuelas. He’s been on the show before talking about the Global Economy Super popular show, so we brought him back on. If you don’t remember, Joe is the principal and chief economist as RSM. He’s been named one of the best economic forecasters out there by Bloomberg, and today we’re going to talk to him about where the US sits globally and how we stack up to other economies. We’ll talk about China’s economic slowdown. We’ll talk about the conflict in the Middle East and what that could mean for oil prices. We’ll also get Joe’s take on the biggest economic risks facing the US and his prediction on where fed rates will land in the next year, and I’m going to give you a little bit of a spoiler. Joe has a refreshingly optimistic but very candid view of the US economy and he understands it as well as anyone. He’s got a lot of data, information, experience to back up his opinions and if you’re like me, you’ll like what he has to say about the future of the US economy. With that, let’s bring on Joe.

    Dave:
    Joe, welcome back to On the Market. Thanks for being here today.

    Joe:
    Thank you for having me on. It’s always good to talk to you, Dave.

    Dave:
    Well, we don’t always talk about the global economy here and on the market, so I think it would be helpful if you could maybe just give us a summary of the global economy and sort of where the US sits in terms of competitiveness, growth, inflation, all the key indicators. How does the US stack up against the rest of the world right now?

    Joe:
    Okay. Well, I guess two things. The first is is that we have seen the first tentative steps of what we can call the global recovery. It would appear that the initial price shock caused by the shutdown of supply chains during the pandemic has now ebbed. Central banks have seen the economy begin to recover and they’re now engaged in a near synchronized set of central bank rate cuts. While growth is not going to be spectacular, it’s going to be solid probably into three to 3.2% variety for the entire year. Now, the United States, because of the combined fiscal and monetary firepower put to work during the pandemic emerged first, and what we’re seeing in this first phase of the post pandemic economy is that the United States is looking a lot stronger its growth rate through mid-year 3.1% on a year ago basis. Dave, we spent a lot of time thinking about the real economy in my business and real final private demand that’s the best proxy for the economy.

    Joe:
    It’s up 2.6% and it’s been pegged there for better part of a year now. So the United States economy is doing pretty well even as it cools into the end of the year now not just growth but also inflation as we speak. The overall inflation rate, the underlying inflation rate’s around 2.5%, perhaps a bit lower, and again, the US is just simply outperforming its G seven peers. What’s most important is that prior to the pandemic, US attracted about 18 to 20% of capital flows around the world coming out of the pandemic. It’s more than 30%, and one gets the sense that the combined impact of US industrial policy as policy designed to support infant industries like artificial intelligence and to make sure that the playing field with respect to trade is leveled out in addition to the supply and chain resilience policies that have been put in place and the first steps towards a more sustainable set of environmental policies all are working to attract capital from around the world.

    Joe:
    Moreover, since 2021, in our own internal surveys, we could see a move by firms to begin substituting very sophisticated technology for a lack of labor. That lack of labor was caused by the long term demographic changes that were going through, the grain aging and exit of the baby boomers from the workforce, and then also a long period of investment in technology that’s now beginning to reap and gains. Now, it’s interesting, it doesn’t quite include artificial intelligence, but the point is now that that long period of investment is really beginning to pay off US productivity is up 2.7% on a year over year basis. That’s the best. Since the period of 1995 to 2004, the United States comes, it’s just outperforming, but that improvement in productivity, that’s the magical elixir, the secret sauce if you will,

    Joe:
    That allows the economy to grow faster, have a lower unemployment rate and price stability. Right? Should we continue to see this and I think we will because we’re just seeing the tip of the spear around artificial intelligence. It’s going to change the underlying structure of not only the United States economy but the global economy going forward. There are good and great things happening across the American economy, and it’s good that we talk about them because too many times the doom and gloom crew out there have the initiative. It’s always easier to sound smarter when you’re being hypercritical or pointing out the shortcomings about what’s going on in the market or the economy, but I got to tell you what we’re seeing here. The baseline suggests that we’re going to be onwards and upwards with this economy for a number of years, and that’s a good thing to talk about.

    Dave:
    I love it. Yeah, I mean, I feel like we hear a lot of negativity about the economy, but so much of the data suggests that the US is still really competitive, even in the light of seeing a lot of recession warnings, labor market softening. I think there are some broader trends that you’ve been seeing. One question I want to ask though, is the US outperforming because we are at a period of strength or are some of the previously strong competitors like China just sort of fading away?

    Joe:
    Well, I think it’s a little bit of both that some of the challenges to the economy around the pandemic have just ended, right? The economy’s normalizing now on a year ago basis, we’re up 3.1% through the middle part of the year, and that’s not going to be sustainable. We’re going to move back to a trend just below a 2%, right around 1.8%, so as the economy cools, you should expect to see demand for hiring. Cool. Remember a year ago the unemployment rate was 3.4%, okay? That’s too low. Out of 2022 into early 2023, the economy was at risk of overheating, right? The fact that we’ve been able to achieve that soft landing, in other words, are still in full employment with the economy cooling and price stability returning means we’ve achieved the objectives of the exit from the pandemic. The economy didn’t crash. Now, I know that there’s a big doom and gloom crew out there for two years they’ve been predicting recession in a certain point. It’s like being a broken clock. That’s right. Twice a day, right? They’ll be right eventually, but it doesn’t look like the economy is at risk of recession or will be falling into one in the near term, and it’s unfortunate that that discourse gain predominance in some quarters because there are rational investors and good hardworking people who are really missing out on what’s happening right now in the economy.

    Dave:
    We have to take a quick break, but more from Joe Bruce Suela when we return. Welcome back to On the Market. Since we do talk more about the American economy on the show and you are an expert in the global economy, I’d like to just touch on some of the major storylines in the global economy because to me what you’re saying about the American situation makes sense. The variable that makes me a little worried is just sort of like a black swan event because it just seems like there’s so much geopolitical instability right now. So what are the main stories on a geopolitical global economy level that you think are important today?

    Joe:
    Well, first and foremost, it’s the role status and risks around the people’s republic of China. China for close to 30 years saw near double digit rate growth on an average basis. Well, China’s REITs, what economists would call a middle income trap, that their business model, that was the primary driver in growth modernization, massive investment in commercial, residential real estate, and then subsidizing industries become an export oriented growth model have largely come to an end. That model is going to be required to change, it’s going to need to evolve, but because of the unique political economy of the PRC, you have an authoritarian government on top of a market economy under certain conditions that can be very difficult, and those conditions are beginning to approximate. China’s true growth rate’s probably slowing to somewhere around 2%. It’s domestic economy, its household pace of consumption has slowed significantly why they’re going through a classic debt and leveraging cycle altogether.

    Joe:
    Not too different from what the United States went through between 2007 and 2014, and unfortunately with the Japanese economy went through over a period of decades starting in the early 1990s until very recently, and we’re not sure how this is going to evolve. Right now, the Chinese domestic political, fiscal and monetary authority seems entirely reluctant to reflate the domestic sector. By that I mean they need to transfer incomes from businesses to households in order to get that economy moving in because they’re uncertain around the true condition of the underlying financial sector. Moreover, in order to keep things moving because what the Chinese really fear is an increase in unemployment and B, an increase inflation, they’re attempting to export the burden of adjustment to its trade partners. What that means is the Chinese have directed that the political authorities directed the financial sector to reallocate risk capital to manufacturing. Right now, China’s got a tremendous oversupply of goods and because they want to make their trade partners absorb their adjustment by basically telling them, you’re going to have to accept a smaller share of global manufacturing as we export our surplus capacity. Now, Dave, if this was 1995 or even 2005, the entire world would’ve said, yeah, we’ll do that. Right?

    Dave:
    Why would they have accepted that?

    Joe:
    Because at the time we would’ve thought that this was part of binding China to an existing global order that it had a stake in so that it would not seek to overturn that order.

    Dave:
    Clearly,

    Joe:
    That didn’t end up the way that policymakers 30 or 40 years ago thought. So we’re in a very different period where the major economies, the US, Europe, the uk, Japan, South Korea, Australia, are clearly not going to accept a smaller share of global manufacturing. That’s why we’ve seen the tariffs, the trade wars, the geopolitical tensions that have clearly spilled over. I mean, the primary target of US industrial policy is to limit the capacity of China to assume and set global standards around electric vehicles and around sophisticated microchips. Moreover, it’s to protect our infant artificial intelligence industry and quantum. So there’s a lot there. The two outs for free trade are national security and infant industries. The United States has declared both. That’s why we’ve seen a change in the structure of the global economy, capital flows, in terms of trade. So we’re going to be in a period of some tension for a good time over China’s over capacity and its attempt to export its burden of adjustment to its trade partners.

    Dave:
    Can you say a little bit more about that, Joe, because I’m curious what potential impacts on the US economy there are from this situation in China?

    Joe:
    Well, it’s a lot less than it would’ve been a number of years ago. Each quarter you can open up what’s called the 10 Qs and look at the balance sheets of the banks and see their exposure to different economies. Over the past number of years, the big banks have began to reduce their exposure to PRC, and that lessens the probability that contagion from a real crisis in China would flow through the financial channel. But the point is, if you’re a forward-looking investor and you’re worried about risk, you can open up the 10 Qs of the 100 or so systemically important financial institutions, the big banks around the world and see what the exposure is. There’s a lot more transparency than you would think given the neo conspiratorial talk that masquerades is conventional wisdom in some quarters.

    Dave:
    Got it. Well, I haven’t even heard of that, but I am assure reassured a bit at least that you feel that most American banks or western banks are probably not super exposed. I’m curious though, moving on from China, if you think there’s limited risk coming from China right now, are there other geopolitical situations evolving that you think do pose a bigger risk or a bigger opportunity to the US economy?

    Joe:
    Okay, so when I think about the global economy, right, because my main valley Wix see American economy, but like everybody else since the great financial crisis, you had to become an expert on global economics because it’s an interdependent, globally intertwined integrated economy. When you think about global economics, you start with commodities and energy always and everywhere first. Then you move to industrial production because of the tumult in the Middle East, and we’re now 10 months into the latest conflict between Israel and its antagonists. Well, you do think about the price of oil. Now my sense here is that the United States, the Norwegians, the Latins have all stepped up production right now. We’re awash in a sea of oil globally, and there’s more coming online due to what’s going on in Africa and even some of the rehabilitation of some of the states in the Middle East. So right now, I’m not too concerned about a price shock via the oil channel, but one always should be concerned about events in the Middle East spilling over into a wider conflagration that involves the Israelis and the Iranians and their supporters. So that’s the other major risk out there, I think right now.

    Dave:
    Got it. Okay. And that risk would come to the US mostly through oil prices,

    Joe:
    It through the oil channel. Now, it’s important that we put this in the proper context, right? The US is the leading producer of oil in the world now. It is self-sufficient when it comes to energy. We actually produce more oil than we use, so we’re now exporting it. You might have noticed gasoline prices this year, Dave. They’re down almost 9% from the peak in April, and I took a look at wholesale gasoline futures because before we came on, because I thought we might be talking about this, we should see another 6% decline in gasoline prices, and that simply has to do with the pace of domestic consumption. We become incredibly efficient in our domestic oil and energy business. The same companies that produce oil begin to invest in renewables about a decade ago, and it’s starting to bear fruit, but nevertheless, the price for oil set globally, if there is a disruption in supply of the Middle East, it will hit our trade partners and invariably that will impact us. So that does remain to me that it’s the second biggest risk out there of a black swan if that’s how you want to raise it to the global

    Dave:
    Economy. Thank you for explaining that. I think those are two global situations that I and our audience can wrap our heads around. So let’s just return back to the us. You seem bullish on the US economy. What’s your for the rest of 2024 and into 2025, what should we expect?

    Joe:
    Well, we expect to see long-term trend like growth for the second half of the year and into next year, meaning right around 2% with some upside risk. There’s a tremendous fiscal tailwind behind the US economy having to do with the rebuilding of its infrastructure, the supply chains. We have one of those new chip factories about 20 miles from where I live. You ought to see it, Dave. It is fantastic. You got to go? No, I got to go. Yeah. I’ve been able to tour the factory here in Texas and the two out in Arizona. Cool. You know what it’s like it just as an aside, back in the nineties, we used to play this game called Sim City. You sort of build civilization, right?

    Dave:
    Oh, I know it. Of course,

    Joe:
    You can go out Tyler, Texas and watch around Tyler how civilization is being built from the substructure that’s being put in to support everything to the highways, to the townhomes, the condos, the single family residences, and all of the lifestyle centers that are springing up to support all this, right? I’m actually talking to a firm in Europe that’s thinking about investing in wealth management in Tyler, Texas to anticipate the explosion of the boom around the building of these fabs. Wow. That’s why one of the factors and reasons why I’m very bullish on the forward look around the economy, because you’re going to see not only central Texas, not only Phoenix, Scottsdale, but you’re going to see Ohio and upstate New York, Columbus, Ohio on the area on Cornell and upstate New York be the recipient of investment due to the basic decision by the United States to create resilient supply chains around the most advanced and sophisticated technology, and I’m expecting we’re going to see more of this second with the US unemployment rate sitting around 4.3 now.

    Joe:
    We think it’ll finish around four and a half at the end of the year. That’s historically low inflation is ebbing, which that means real incomes are going up. For the past 15 months, the average workers seeing an increase in their incomes over inflation. The argument we’re having with each other about grocery prices, once you account for hours worked and income above inflation, grocery prices, what it takes to work or to pay for a week’s of grocery prices is right back to where it was in 2019. Now, that’s nothing. I’m going to go stand in front of a school board with the PTA and tell them, right? People throw eggs and tomatoes at you, they simply won’t believe you yet it’s empirically true and over time, economics has a funny way of trumping ideology and politics and that reality will take place because each household is proceeding through the adjustment post inflation shock in a different way.

    Joe:
    Some have already made their adjustment and moved on, others are in the midst it and others, it’s going to take a while, right? There’s no two households that are alike, but I am confident that that adjustment will take place. We’ve got a dynamic economy that’s growing. It’s becoming less fragile by the day as we harden those supply chains, as we move towards a different balance in terms of the overall economy, yes, there are risks. There are always going to be challenges and there are always going to be problems, but to me, the economy looks like it’s on a much more sturdier foundation than it did in 2019.

    Dave:
    Wow. Joe, you’re getting me fired up about the American economy. I love this optimistic view. Time for one last quick break, but after the break, we’re going to hear from Joe on his predictions about the US economy and where the Fed funds rate might land in the next year. Hey, investors, let’s jump back in. You did say there’s risks though, so what are the risks that you see?

    Joe:
    Alright, well, we clearly have had a structural change in how and where we work between 20 and 30% of us work at home and work at home permanently. That’s caused an issue in commercial real estate.

    Dave:
    Sure has.

    Joe:
    I was just reading a story this morning about how in the major metros, there’s a juxtaposition that’s formed in the class, a commercial real estate sector. The newer buildings with the amenities and the technology, they’re full. They’re over capacity

    Dave:
    Office space, you mean?

    Joe:
    Office space? Yeah. The older office space that doesn’t have that, those capabilities, there’s some real problems. Now, one does not want to discount the financial workout that’s going to go on in commercial real estate. Indeed in 2023, March, April. Remember the mini crisis around the state and local banks,

    Joe:
    There are banks that are going to fail. They’re going to be problems. The majority of those notes are held in those state and local banks, and it’s going to take a while to work through that. However, it’s not a systemic risk. It’s more of a local economic risk, but that’s part of it. Second, there’s a wall of maturing corporate debt. It’s going to need to be dealt with over the next two to three years. It’s about $3 trillion in debt. It’s the debt that was issued at the bottom of the pandemic 20 20, 20 21 when interest rates were very low. So think of 800 million that was issued near 0% in real terms, well, most corporate debts five years. We’re going to move into the first vintage that’s five years old and it’s going to need to be rolled over. Well, let’s say it was issued at 2%. Well, we’re going to roll that over. It’s going to be closer to five to 8%. Is it going to be 800 million? No, it’s going to be more like 500 million.

    Dave:
    Yeah. Can I just jump in Joe and explain to everyone what this means for people who don’t know corporate debt, just like the US can issue bonds to raise capital corporations issue debt.

    Joe:
    That’s right,

    Dave:
    And they were getting it super cheap just like everyone else was getting super cheap debt during the pandemic, and it sounds like what you’re saying, Joe, is that corporations are going to have to reissue this debt. They need the working capital, but at a higher rate, which I assume impacts their cashflow.

    Joe:
    That’s right. So unlike you who might’ve bought a house and had a 30 year fixed loan, the rate won’t change until you sell it.

    Dave:
    Yep.

    Joe:
    Corporations typically take on debt in a five year increments or less, so every five years they need to roll over that debt and refinance it. So let me make it real simple. An $800 million loan by a large firm taken out at 5% in 2020 will likely be rolled over, but not at those same terms. It’ll probably be more like 500 million at 8%, let’s say. Right? Just to make it easy to get your head wrapped around it, okay. Into the gap, that 300 million that needs to be funded, private equity and private credit will step in, which is why we always want to make sure we know what’s going on and the health of private equity and private credit. That’s something that could cause a slowdown in hiring and a slowdown in overall economic activity. Now, having said that, because I outlined the risks commercial real estate and the maturity wall of debt that’s going to need to be rolled over the functioning of American capital markets over the last year has been nothing short of significant. We just haven’t seen a real problem rolling over that debt in the financial workout from the commercial real estate sector, and it looks to me with the Federal Reserve beginning to embark on its rate cutting cycle here in September that we’re going to be able to do that too, and I think we should talk a little bit about that rate cutting cycle as a way of coming back full circle to the start of the show

    Dave:
    Before we go into the rate cut cycle, which I do want to talk about. We’ve been hearing and talking about on the show quite a lot, this impending adjustment correction reckoning in commercial real estate. Why has it taken so long?

    Joe:
    Okay, so it’s in no one’s interest either the people holding the loans or the entities that have to engage in a disorderly panic. Second, US economy’s $27 trillion. It’s a big, huge dynamic animal. Those large sums, about 101 and a half trillion dollars was the estimate that had to be rolled in CRE at the beginning of the year to the mere mortal. That seems, oh my god, that’s huge. That’s going to cause a recession. No, it’s not. It’s simply not large enough. It can cause problems in certain localities where the non-performing loans put constraints on local banks to support regional economic activity. Yeah, I think North Texas, right? We can see things slowing down in North Texas. It’s in the Dallas Federal Reserve’s Regional Survey. You can tell that the elevated period of interest rates combined with the ability or constraints around these local banks to make loans due to the fact that they’re holding a large portfolio of non-performing loans or semi non-performing loans is causing some of these areas to slow down, but it’s not sufficient in and of itself to cause a systemic problem or to cause the overall economy itself to slow down.

    Joe:
    I’m just old enough to remember the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s that contributed significantly to what was the end of the big Reagan 1980s era boom. This just isn’t that.

    Dave:
    All right. Well, I guess we’ll have to just wait and see how it plays out, but I’m glad to hear that you don’t think it’s going to cause some systemic shock. Last thing I want to chat with you about here today, Joe, is what you alluded to earlier, the fed lowering cycle. Tell us what you make of the Fed’s position right now and how it might play out over the next few years.

    Joe:
    Okay. At the Jackson Hole Monetary Symposium, the Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell was very explicit. It’s time for a policy pivot. Interest rates are going to start to come down now. Right now, the federal funds rate sitting between 5.25 and 5.5%. We expect that we’re going to get a string of 25 basis point rate cuts. The risk is they could be larger if hiring slows or there’s something going wrong in the external economy that impinges on the domestic economy. It’s not so much the first rate cut that matters or the second or third, it’s the destination. Now, we think based on our, what’s called estimation of the reaction function of the Federal Reserve or the estimation of what’s the optimal interest rate given prevailing conditions in the economy, will cause the Federal Reserve to lower that by about 200 basis points to around somewhere between three and 3.5%, and we think they’ll get there in the second half of next year.

    Joe:
    That’s going to provide quite the boost to the domestic economy. It will allow one to refinance their mortgage rate if they bought a home over the last year, year and a half, refinance auto rates. If you’ve taken out a loan over the last two years, it will lower the interest rate charge on revolving debt. It will help the federal government to roll over debt at cheaper rates. As those rates come down, you’ll see what we call the term spectrum of interest. Rates from two to five years reset lower. We think the front end will reset much lower, and if you’re a consumer, you want to watch that 10 year rate. Of course, if you’re in business and you need capital to expand your business, you want to focus like a laser being on what’s called the belly of the curve from two to five years in general, and that five year in particular today, the US five years trading at 3.65%.

    Joe:
    Okay, you’re a firm. You want to take out a hundred million dollars. You want to expand production and go hire people. Okay, good. Do that. Why? Well, 3.65%, you want to less out the inflation rate, two point a half. That means the real rate of return is 1.15. As the term shifts lower, it will cost you less to expand your firm via American capital markets. That’s a fundamentally good thing. We’ll put a floor into the economy, we’ll put a ceiling on top of how high unemployment can go, and basically, Dave, we’re all going to finally get on with it. We’ll be able to look back and rear view mirror and say the pandemic era is actually over.

    Dave:
    Wow. You’re painted a pretty picture, Joe. I like it and I hope you’re right, but you’re obviously very informed opinions here, and I hope that for all of us that this optimistic view of a growing stable, like you said, dynamic American economy is exactly what we’re going to get. Joe, thank you so much for joining us today. We will put links to Joe’s research, his contact information in the show notes as we always do. Thanks for joining us today, Joe.

    Joe:
    Thank You, Dave.It was always a pleasure

    Dave:
    On the market, was created by me, Dave Meyer and Kaylin Bennett. The show is produced by Kaylin Bennett, with editing by Exodus Media. Copywriting is by Calico content, and we want to extend a big thank you to everyone at BiggerPockets for making this show possible.

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  • Should Christian men run America? Hell no, say abuse survivors in new documentary

    Should Christian men run America? Hell no, say abuse survivors in new documentary

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    Christa Brown speaks about experiencing abuse, at a rally outside the annual meeting of the Southern Baptist Convention at the Birmingham-Jefferson Convention Complex, on June 11, 2019, in Birmingham, Ala. (RNS photo/Butch Dill)

    Christa Brown speaks about experiencing abuse, at a rally outside the annual meeting of the Southern Baptist Convention at the Birmingham-Jefferson Convention Complex, June 11, 2019, in Birmingham, Ala. (RNS photo/Butch Dill)

    (RNS) — Christa Brown has heard former President Donald Trump and his supporters boast of returning Christians to power in the United States — and returning the nation to what they say are its Christian roots.

    She wants none of it.

    Brown, a sexual abuse survivor and longtime advocate for abuse reform in the Southern Baptist Convention, has seen what happens when Christian men have power over women in the church. The thought of them having the same power over the country makes her quake.

    “I have seen what it means for the largest evangelical Protestant faith group in the country, and it is bloody awful,” Brown says in a new short film about the connections between abuse and Christian nationalism called “For Our Daughters.”

     “That is not the country I want,” Brown says.

    "For Our Daughters" film poster. (Courtesy image)

    “For Our Daughters” film poster. (Courtesy image)

    Brown is one of several abuse survivors, most with Southern Baptist ties, featured in the film — which also includes clips of Trump promising power to Christian leaders, along with photos of pastors with Trump. Among those pastors is Robert Morris, a former faith adviser to the former president who recently stepped down from his Dallas megachurch after the revelation that he’d sexually abused a 12-year-old girl in the past.

    The film also highlights videos of a pair of congregations cheering for abusive pastors, as well as clips of right-wing pastors such as Doug Wilson, who teaches that women were designed to serve men and make babies, and Joel Webbon, a Texas pastor who believes women should no longer have the right to vote.

    “Godly women want to feed their men,” Wilson says in one video clip. “Godly women are designed to make the sandwiches.”

    The 30-minute film was a labor of love for Kristin Kobes Du Mez, a professor of history at Calvin University, and award-winning filmmaker Carl Byker. The two have been working on a long project about Jesus and John Wayne but worried the voices of abuse survivors might get overshadowed in a longer documentary.

    “We needed to let these women speak,” said Du Mez, who featured the stories of survivors like Brown and Woodson in her bestselling book, “Jesus and John Wayne.”

    Byker said the film, which will begin streaming on YouTube on Sept. 26, was inspired by the stories of survivors and also by a story from his childhood about how women are mistreated in churches.  When he was 12, he recalled, the church his family attended held a vote on a new pastor.

    “I asked my mom, ‘When are you going to put your ballot in the box?’” he said in a phone interview. “And she replied, ‘Oh, women aren’t allowed to vote.’ I thought, something is seriously wrong here.”

    Du Mez hopes the film will help explain why so many evangelical Christians are willing to support Trump despite his abusive behavior, like that described in the “Access Hollywood” tape in which then-candidate Trump boasted of sexually assaulting women. A clip from the tape is played in the film.

    Kristin Du Mez. (Photo © Deborah K. Hoag)

    Kristin Du Mez. (Photo © Deborah K. Hoag)

    In many churches, she said, power has become more important than morality.

    Du Mez said that not all evangelical churches are abusive — but too many of them have allowed abuse to be covered up and have tolerated abusive pastors for too long.

    “This is not in any way a blanket condemnation of everybody who attends an evangelical church or of all evangelical leaders,” she said in an interview. “But it is calling out a pattern that happens all too frequently in evangelical churches, and just putting it on display for people to see.”



    Brown has seen that pattern firsthand for years. As an advocate for abuse reform, she was ignored by SBC leaders for years. She was also labeled as being part of a “satanic scheme” to bring down the SBC. Brown sees parallels between the way faith has been used to attack abuse survivors and the way it is used in politics to promote causes such as Christian nationalism.

    “I believe faith is being exploited to legitimize authoritarianism in the political arena,” Brown said.

    The title of “For Our Daughters” came from conversations Du Mez had with evangelical women after publishing “Jesus and John Wayne,” which describes the toxic masculinity found in some evangelical settings. Those women, she said, thanked her for the book, saying that they hoped things would be better for their daughters because of it.

    Jules Woodson of Help;Hear;Heal. Photo by Rachel Ellis

    Jules Woodson. (Photo by Rachel Ellis)

    One of the most powerful moments in the film occurs when a photo of young women, including then-teenager Jules Woodson, is shown with Andy Savage, a former youth pastor who later admitted to what he called “sexual misconduct” involving Woodson. That’s followed by Woodson telling her story about abuse at the hands of Savage, and then how it was covered up and she was blamed.

    Years later, Savage admitted having a “sexual incident with a female high school student” during a service at the Memphis, Tennessee, megachurch where he served as pastor. The congregation responded with a standing ovation.

    “I mourn for that girl,” Woodson said during an interview. “What happened changed the trajectory of my life, and I wonder what it would have been like, had everything not happened.”

    Woodson rejected the idea that Christian men need to be in charge of America.

    “God doesn’t need these people,” she says in the film. “I mean, let’s talk about narcissism. For these men to think that they are so important to the mission, to God, to the nation. Give me a break.”

    The film also features Tiffany Thigpen, who was assaulted by a pastor named Darrell Gilyard as a teenager and later testified against him when he was accused of abusing girls at another church. She recounts how for years her pastor had told her to be silent and told her that any controversy about Gilyard — who was a protégé of Moral Majority founder Jerry Falwell Sr. as well as SBC leaders such as Jerry Vines and Paige Patterson — would blow over. Gilyard was eventually convicted in 2009 and sentenced to three years in prison. A few months later, he was back in the pulpit.

    Thigpen worries that some Trump supporters will reject the film and the concerns of survivors by labeling them a part of a liberal agenda to oppose the former president. She said she has bigger concerns, mainly that too many of her fellow Christians act in ways that are contrary to the teaching of Jesus.

    “They’re doing everything against what’s supposed to be right and good and true,” she said. “The fact that they have platformed Donald Trump as a savior and as the answer that God’s provided for us. It just shows how far we have lost our minds.”

    Attorney and abuse advocate Rachael Denhollander, whose testimony helped convict former USA Gymnastics doctor Larry Nassar, says churches that teach that women must submit to the authority of men, and that God gave men absolute power over women, can create an abusive culture.

     “And so men think they can get away with abuse because they actually can get away with it,” she says in the film.

    Denhollander said in an interview that many Christians rallied to her side when she testified against Nassar. But she thinks that had her abuser been a pastor or someone like Trump, things would have been very different.

    “Here’s the reality,” she said. “Had I been victimized by Donald Trump instead of Larry Nassar, my community would not only not be supporting me — they would be actively vilifying me. They would be actively supporting and voting for an abuser.”



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  • Global warming makes hurricanes stronger, but less frequent | by Ethan Siegel | Starts With A Bang! | Sep, 2024

    Global warming makes hurricanes stronger, but less frequent | by Ethan Siegel | Starts With A Bang! | Sep, 2024

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    This graph shows the historical tropical cyclone frequency as a function of day of the year, with all tropical cyclones shown in red and hurricane-strength storms only shown in yellow. The background shows Hurricane Francie over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, September 11, 2024. (Credit: NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-East)

    The laws of physics aren’t changing. But the Earth’s conditions are different than what they used to be, and so are hurricanes as a result.

    Here in our Universe, there’s a formula for understanding how any physical phenomenon works. If we can come to know the fundamental rules governing any physical system, and if those rules remain constant over time, then we can input the parameters that we have at any moment and evolve that system forwards in time, allowing us to predict its future behavior. These laws enable certain phenomena to arise as long as specific physical conditions are met:

    • gravitation and orbital parameters determine the tides,
    • solar ejecta and the magnetic connection between the Earth and Sun determine the aurorae,
    • and the interface between Earth’s windy atmosphere and the warm ocean waters determine the formation and properties of hurricanes.

    The specifics of whatever conditions are in place at any moment in time help determine things — like frequency and intensity — of any such physical phenomenon.

    For chaotic systems like hurricanes, there’s inevitably going to be a certain amount of variation and…

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  • 40% Off Hearth & Hand w/ Magnolia Decor at Target (Collin’s Fave Sink Caddy Just $8.99 + Tons More)!

    40% Off Hearth & Hand w/ Magnolia Decor at Target (Collin’s Fave Sink Caddy Just $8.99 + Tons More)!

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    Target

    Shipping is free on orders of $35 or more. You may also be able to opt for free in-store pickup if items are in stock and available near you.

    If you’re a Target Circle Card holder, you’ll get an additional 5% off your order plus free shipping on any size order! However, exclusions do apply and orders for RedCard holders may require the $35+ shipping threshold.

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  • What to Know About the VP’s Livestream with Oprah Winfrey – Hollywood Life

    What to Know About the VP’s Livestream with Oprah Winfrey – Hollywood Life

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    kamala harris oprah winfrey featured
    Image Credit: Getty Images

    Oprah Winfrey will be in Michigan tonight, September 19, to host a livestream event with Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.

    With polls showing a tight race against Donald Trump, whose campaign remains resilient despite a rocky debate performance and race-based immigration attacks, Winfrey aims to mobilize voters ahead of the November election. Having endorsed Harris and spoken at the Democratic convention last month, she will headline the event in Farmington Hills.

    The event, titled “Unite for America 2024,” will feature Winfrey and Harris on stage in front of a local audience, discussing the election’s stakes and the importance of voting. Winfrey emphasized her goal: “What is essential to me is getting people motivated to vote — and that’s my intention in hosting this event. My goal is to get people excited about the privilege and power of the vote.”

    Earlier on Thursday, a pro-Palestinian grassroots organization, Uncommitted National Movement, announced it would not endorse Harris but urged supporters to vote against Trump. The movement, which originated in Michigan and garnered over 101,000 votes in the state’s presidential primary, expressed concerns about the U.S. handling of the Israel-Hamas war and the vice president’s unwillingness to commit to significant policy changes if elected. The group has called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and an end to U.S. weapons transfers to Israel.

    What Time Does the Livestream Start?

    The event is set to begin at 8 p.m. ET.

    How to Watch the Livestream

    Harris campaign advisers report that nearly 200,000 people have signed up to watch the livestream, and they hope to reach even more viewers through streams on YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, and Twitch accounts for both Winfrey and Harris. Everyone can join online at YouTube.com/@Oprah.

    What Will Trump Be Doing?

    Trump will be in Washington to participate in the “Fighting Anti-Semitism in America” evening event alongside Miriam Adelson, co-owner of the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks and widow of billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, a significant donor to the Republican Party.

    Additionally, Trump will address the Israeli-American Council, a nonprofit supported by both Adelson and Haim Saban, a major contributor to President Joe Biden and Democratic causes.

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  • Must Read: Glossier to Launch New Fragrances, British Fashion Council CEO Steps Down

    Must Read: Glossier to Launch New Fragrances, British Fashion Council CEO Steps Down

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    These are the stories making headlines in fashion on Thursday. Glossier is launching two new perfumes at onceFollowing a cryptic Instagram post with the teasing caption, “The anticipation of the party,” Glossier is launching two new perfumes in early October as follow-ups to its successful …

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  • ‘Berlin’ Review: A Layered Tale of Deception, Betrayal, and Sacrifice

    ‘Berlin’ Review: A Layered Tale of Deception, Betrayal, and Sacrifice

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    Atul Sabharwal‘s third feature film, Berlin, is an espionage thriller set during the times when India, under the leadership of Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao, was striving to establish a strong geopolitical relation with Russia. The Cold War had just been over, and it was time for new economic growth for the nation. With that changed scenario, the modus operandi of the intelligence departments also changed. The film is forthrightly cerebral and minimalist, and offers a stark and sharp presentation of mystery and tension. The tale largely unfolds in claustrophobic locations where civilians are at pains to constantly wonder. This proves to heighten the mood of the spy game, as it throws the viewer into the deceptive rituals of bureaucratic politics, where intelligence agencies walk a delicate tightrope between managing failures, honeytraps, and denial.    

    It is 1993, and winter has Delhi City in a cold grip. Pushkin is an expert in sign language and teaches at a school for differently-abled children. Suddenly, one day he is officially assigned to interpreting duties during the interrogation of Ashok (Ishwak Singh), a deaf-mute young man who the Bureau’s intelligence officer Sondhi suspects is a spy. Though reluctant, Pushkin embarks on the operation. As Pushkin begins his work, he is abducted by a rival intelligence agency known as Wing, which is at odds with the Bureau. Raman, an agent from Wing, pressures Pushkin to manipulate the interpretation, threatening the safety of his family. The next day as the interrogation continues, Pushkin’s behaviors make Sodhi suspicious that the interpreter has been compromised. Pushkin becomes aware of a café called Berlin, where the classified government information floats very casually between the operatives of an intelligence agency. Ashok worked as a waiter in the cafe. The Russian president is supposed to visit India shortly, and a plot to assassinate him is already in motion. A mysterious woman who was identified as part of the conspiracy has disappeared, and finding her will stop the mayhem from happening. Now, Pushkin is entangled in a web of secrets and lies, illusions and grim truths, loyalty and betrayal.   

    Berlin

    The brilliance of Berlin lies in creating an atmosphere of dread and suspense through a measuredly paced narrative that brings the plausibility of a fictional world that is palpable. What the film does exceptionally well is immerse us in the lonely and isolated world the characters are forced to inhabit. It effectively establishes a pervasive sense of paranoia that characterized the milieu. It allows the viewers to feel the tension and uncertainty that defined their lives. The exchange of sign language between Pushkin and Ashok carries an emotional connection that is nuanced and subtly shaded.  As Pushkin becomes Ashok’s voice to the Bureau, a seemingly bond seems to form between them, which complicates Pushkin’s role as an interpreter and blurs the lines between responsibility and empathy. There are moments when Ashok, out of the blue, asks Pushkin who named him after the Russian poet and whether he ever feels lonely. Such inquisitiveness not only humanizes Ashok but also unsettles Pushkin, making him reflect on his own life, isolation, and the moral weight of the situation he’s caught in. This growing connection further complicates Pushkin’s ability to remain objective as the emotional stakes rise with each passing conversation. The brutalist structures of the government offices and the claustrophobic space of the interrogation room bring a stark, oppressive atmosphere to the proceedings. The old, unyielding architecture mirrors the rigidity of the bureaucratic system. The confined setting heightens the psychological tension. Pushkin and Ashok are trapped in a space dominated by power dynamics, gazes, and manipulation.

    See also  Review: Sudeep Kanwal's Privacy(2023) offers an intrusive glimpse into the world of surveillance

    Despite a strong build-up, the film falters midway, struggling to keep us engaged with the progression of the story in a compelling manner. The plot presents a chain of seemingly complex events that eventually detracts our engagement in the film. The interrogation scenes drag on, consuming much of the screen time without advancing the story captivatingly to finally reach the conclusion. It feels as though Sabarwal, who is also the writer, is merely going through the motions, with the acts being a bit too repetitive to leave a lasting impression. The film would benefit from being about thirty minutes shorter. The character of the missing woman, who is crucial to unraveling the central mystery, is treated like a filler lacking depth or clear motives. Ashok’s sudden ability to locate a Wing member’s address and skillfully use a gun feels far-fetched and unconvincing. Pushkin’s premarital meeting with a girl, where her father (played by Joy Sengupta) is present, is shoehorned into the story to highlight the benefits of liberalization in India, contrasting multinational companies’ high salaries with government jobs. The film’s climax fails to deliver a satisfying twist or revelation, leaving the conclusion feeling flimsy and unimpactful.    

    Berlin

    The cinematography by Shreedutta Namjoshi effectively captures the period of the film, highlighting delicate nuances of light and shadow, resulting in a visually striking presentation that complements the film’s minimalist setting. Whether it’s the claustrophobic atmosphere of the interrogation room, the wide expanse of the café, or the secluded exterior locations, the camera maintains a constant sense of motion, a consistently subjective point of view, and features meticulously crafted sequences that are carefully executed. Irene Dhar Malik’s editing sustains the film’s tempo, providing an absorbing pace that allows us to linger on moments while intensifying the rhythm where necessary. Her skillful shifts in perspective bring an edginess giving the film a more dynamic and engaging feel than the script could provide. The production design by Ashok Lokare and Sandeep Shelar effectively recreates the architecture, landscape, and interiors with meticulous attention to detail. Elements like the National Panasonic cassette recorder, Contessa and Fiat cars, and voice recording machines authentically evoke the 1990s and become integral characters in the film. The sound design by Anthony Ruban brings a sharp balance between nuances and dialogues, evoking a vision of a suspicious world filled with deception. The shrill sound of the telephone punctuates the atmosphere, heightening the tension and reflecting the anxiety of the characters as they navigate their uncertain reality. The background score by K. Krishna Kumar effectively conveys a sense of sombreness and trepidation, enhancing the film’s emotional impact.   

    See also  Review: 'The Switch' is Warm Unsatisfying Comedy

    Aparshakti Khurana delivers a controlled and sincere performance as Pushkin Verma, the interpreter who grapples with his conscience to discern the guilt or innocence of others. However, his noble efforts sometimes feel stilted and fall short of perfection. Ishwak Singh portrays Ashok with a sensitive depiction of a deaf-mute individual, conveying intelligence and emotion without uttering a single word, demonstrating that his disability does not overshadow his capabilities. Rahul Bose plays the manipulative and dominating Jagdish Sondhi effectively, but given his stature, he could deliver a more nuanced performance. Deepak Kejriwal’s portrayal of the Wing agent Raman lacks conviction, and Anupriya Goenka, in her brief role, is not fully utilized. The supporting cast, including Nitesh Pandey, Ujjwal Chopra, Kabir Bedi, and Jigar Mehta, performs well in their respective roles.   

    In conclusion, despite the filmmaker’s intentions to create a rich and thought-provoking narrative, Berlin ultimately falls short of its aspirations. The intricate layers and complex themes intended to engage the viewers instead lead to a slow and underwhelming experience.  

    Berlin

    ‘Berlin’ Review: A Layered Tale of Deception, Betrayal, and Sacrifice


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  • Method Man Wants Lines Drawn Between Diddy Crimes and Hip Hop Culture

    Method Man Wants Lines Drawn Between Diddy Crimes and Hip Hop Culture

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