Unhappy voters?
Photo: Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images
Republicans concerned about Donald Trump’s chronically underwater job-approval ratings have sometimes reassured themselves by pointing at chronically low favorability ratings for the Democratic Party. Perhaps by focusing swing-voter attention away from the Trump-GOP record and toward weak spots in the Democratic Party’s philosophy or agenda (real or contrived), they might head off what sure looks like a 2026 midterm election that will flip control of one or perhaps even both congressional chambers along with governorships and state legislatures.
This is hardly the first time a party controlling the White House (and in this case Congress as well) has tried to make a midterm election comparative instead of serving as a referendum on the president, almost always without much success. But it’s true the current electorate has a sour, I-hate-everybody undertone that might be exploited to keep unhappy voters at home if not grudgingly resigned to GOP rule. Still, new data from CNN on so-called “double haters” — people who dislike both major parties — shows that the presidential-referendum effect is hard to overcome. Whether it’s because they hate Republicans a bit more than Democrats or, more likely, because they typically want change from the status quo, the double haters are leaning pretty strongly Democratic heading toward November:
About one-quarter of the public holds a negative view of both parties – so-called double haters. Voters in that group prefer the Democrats in the upcoming midterms by 31 points. …
Double-haters’ most common reason for disliking the GOP is what they see as the party’s failure to stand up to Trump (14%), followed by a sense that the party doesn’t care about people (10%), views about Trump more generally (8%), and a perception of the party as corrupt (8%).
CNN exit polls in prior elections have shown a persistent Trump/GOP advantage among double haters, though the size of the group has varied significantly. In 2016, this group represented a crucial 18 percent of the electorate, and Trump won it by 17 points over Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Trump again won double haters by the same 17 percent, but the category declined to a mere 3 percent of the electorate. In 2024, Trump won double haters by 20 points; they represented 8 percent of the electorate. Perhaps most significantly, Republicans managed to break even with the 10 percent of voters in the 2018 midterms who were double haters despite losing the national House popular vote by over 8 percent. And in 2022, with double haters representing 11 percent of the electorate, Republicans won by the same 17-point margin they posted in 2016 and 2020. Perhaps because no one hates quite like Donald Trump, it has been a Trump-friendly voter group more often than not.
That won’t be the case in 2026, it appears. Aside from the big and unprecedented double-hater advantage, Democrats are also benefiting from stronger enthusiasm, always a big deal in the non-presidential elections where turnout is significantly lower. CNN shows 67 percent of Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters saying they are “extremely motivated to vote” in November, as opposed to just 50 percent of GOP voters plus leaners. This is particularly problematic for Republicans because they have most recently become dependent on support from the “low-propensity” voters least likely to show up at the polls, especially in midterms.
None of these highly favorable indicators guarantee a Democratic “wave” in November. The landscape in both House and Senate races (in terms of the number of highly vulnerable seats) helps the GOP, which also has a very large fundraising advantage. But if Republicans hope to distract attention from Trump’s deep unpopularity by running massive levels of negative ads on transgender rights or alleged discrimination against white people, that may be a fool’s errand. Making a deeply embittered electorate even unhappier with the political system is not a fruitful recipe for the party running the country. Right now, the most embittered voters seem poised to punish Trump and his party by unprecedented margins.
