Posted on: June 15, 2026, 10:09h.
Last updated on: June 15, 2026, 10:09h.
- World Cup prediction market volume already exceeded that of the Super Bowl
- Bernstein says Robinhood likely to draw “strong tailwinds” from the event
- The company is routing World Cup trades through its Rothera platform
Shares of Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) surged Monday amid reports that the early stages of the World Cup brought a prediction markets volume spike that exceeded trading activity tied to the Super Bowl.
In a new report, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani estimates that prediction market operators handled $2.2 billion in transactions on June 11, but that figured more than doubled to $4.8 billion last Friday — the day the US played Paraguay in its opening World Cup match. The $4.8 billion in prediction market volume through the first few days of the tournament is more than triple the $1.4 billion yes/no exchanges handled during the Super Bowl.
Prediction markets World Cup turnover, including Robinhood’s, is off to an encouraging start when considering some of the marquee teams, such as Argentina, England and France, have yet to play their first games. Likewise, that volume could stay elevated the longer the US side remains in the tournament.
Bernstein estimates that with the help of the quadrennial football event, Robinhood’s 2026 prediction market revenue could swell to $586 million from $150 million last year. If that proves accurate, that figure would represent 17% of the brokerage firm’s transaction-based revenue and 10% of total revenue.
Another Reason World Cup Volume Is Meaningful to Robinhood
News of what Chhugani describes as “strong tailwinds” on the back of the World Cup arrives at an important time for Robinhood because prior to the start of the competition, the company said it would route World Cup trades through Rothera — its in-house prediction market.
Robinhood, which says prediction markets are one of its fastest-growing segments, long partnered with Kalshi on event contracts and that partnership is still in place, but the brokerage house said the plan is to gradually scale Rothera over time, implying the company wants to keep more prediction markets revenue for itself.
Looked at another way, Robinhood is using the World Cup as something of proving ground for Rothera. With the benefit of the company’s deep distribution advantages, the strategy appears to be working. Earlier this month, the trading platform unveiled a new pricing structure under which traders pay commissions based on contract price and order size.
Robinhood Gold members can save up to 50% on those transaction costs. The company is routing select World Cup and Major League Baseball trades through Rothera.
Other Prediction Market World Cup Winners
With Kalshi and Polymarket still privately held entities, investors and traders embrace the likes of Robinhood among public companies to express views on the prediction market industry.
Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) are part of that group as well and the latter is experiencing a surge in event contracts volume in its own right.
Coinbase and DraftKings were also mentioned by Bernstein as potential World Cup prediction market beneficiaries. The research firm says the industry at large could generate as much as $10 billion in volume by the time the tournament ends next month.
