Nothing good, SWP Berlin analyst Hamidreza Azizi writes. Larijani, a powerful longtime regime operator, was one of the only people who was best situated to interface between multiple spheres of the regime and the war:
If reports that Israel has killed Ali Larijani are confirmed, this would represent a significant loss for the Islamic Republic. Larijani was a true insider of the Islamic Republic who spent decades at the center of power and who understood how the system actually works. Figures with that level of experience and institutional background are relatively rare in Iran’s current political elite.
One important aspect of his role was that he helped manage the political and strategic dimension of the ongoing war. In other words, beyond the military campaign itself, someone still has to shape the messaging, signal intentions, and communicate with external parties. Larijani was a figure capable of doing that while remaining fully trusted by the system.
His death would therefore not cripple Iran’s decision-making structure, as the system is designed to absorb such losses. But it would remove one of the people who helped connect the political, diplomatic, and security sides of strategy. In wartime, that kind of coordination is particularly valuable.
There is also a broader elite dimension. Larijani was one of the few figures who could navigate between different currents inside the system. Losing him could gradually narrow the circle of experienced political managers and shift influence further toward more military-oriented actors.
In terms of the war itself, the immediate impact would likely be limited operationally. But politically it could harden attitudes inside Tehran and reinforce the narrative that the war is an existential struggle aimed at eliminating the entire leadership of the Islamic Republic.
At the same time, Larijani was also among the type of insiders who could play a role in any future political settlement. Losing figures like him can make it more difficult to eventually manage negotiations or shape the political exit from the war.
Overall, Larijani belonged to a very small group of insiders who knew how to manage both the war and the politics around it. Losing people like that makes the system more rigid, more security-driven, and ultimately less flexible in how it fights – or how it eventually ends – the war.
