Posted on: December 26, 2025, 06:00h.
Last updated on: December 25, 2025, 08:05h.
- Ethereum co-founder says prediction markets have risks comparable to equity markets.
- Says prediction markets are “healthier” to take part in than traditional markets.
- Adds prediction markets should be compared to social media.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin believes prediction markets expose traders to levels of risk comparable to what’s found in equity markets and that event contract exchanges are healthier options for participants.
In a recent social media post, the co-founder of the second-largest cryptocurrency, extolled the truth-seeking potential of prediction markets — something long touted by the industry and its supporters — while noting that form of market participation is less prone to the various forms of manipulation that appear in traditional financial markets.
I actually find prediction markets to be healthier to participate in than regular markets,” observes Buterin. “A key reason why is that prices are bounded between 0 and 1, so they are much less dominated by reflexivity effects, ‘greater fool theory,, pump-and-dumps, etc.”
His comments arrived amid increasing criticism of insider trading on prediction markets, which is far more difficult to police than nefarious trades on standard financial markets because related guidelines and laws haven’t been established.
Buterin Says Prediction, Equity Markets Have Comparable Risk
Buterin believes the worst-case scenario in prediction markets (PMs) is the possibility participants will be incentivized to cause negative events in the name of profit, but he adds that’s a theoretical assumption. He also theorizes yes/no exchanges display similar risk profiles to equity markets.
“Many of the downsides of PMs are replicated by regular stock markets, eg. if you are a political actor with a ‘CAUSE DISASTER’ button, then you could be motivated to press it simply by shorting all the stocks, which have far higher volume than the PMs,” he said.
The comparison to traditional investing could heighten concern among critics asserting the lines between investing and wagering are increasingly blurred with prediction markets playing a substantial role in that scenario.
In a recent post on X, Coinbase Global CEO Brian Armstrong said prediction markets are tools that can help Americans “get ahead” — a comment that garnered its share of replies mocking the notion that event contracts will enhance participants’ financial profiles.
Social Media Is the Comp, Says Buterin
Buterin believes prediction markets are tools for unveiling truth and that as more traders get involved, the evolution will result in probabilities that better reflect market participants’ uncertainty around certain events along with enhanced truth-seeking capabilities. He also sees social media as the more relevant comparison for event contract platforms.
“The thing to compare them to is social media. In social media, lots of people talk about ‘THIS WAR WILL DEFINITELY HAPPEN’ and scare people, and there’s no real accountability: you gain clout in the moment (and that clout is often very monetizable clout!), and no accountability after the fact,” concludes the Ethereum co-founder.
