Photo: Tom Brenner/Getty Images
For Chuck Schumer’s growing list of haters, there are two realities that are going to both excite and frustrate: He’s not going anywhere as Senate Democratic Leader, and it’s increasingly unlikely he’ll be reelected in 2028.
Schumer is now the most unpopular Senate leader with his own party on record. The Democratic base is furious at him for effectively permitting eight Democrats to vote with Republicans to end the government shutdown. For many Democratic voters, the shutdown was a great letdown because it did not secure Schumer’s stated objective: to renew expiring federal subsidies for Obamacare. It’s hard, in fact, to see what Democrats actually won for all their trouble.
Schumer is seen by many progressives and even restive moderates as a political leader who is out of touch with the current mood. He has not offered many compelling anti-Trump arguments or a vision for the Democratic Party going forward. He is not the fighter they crave. His communication style is pulled from the 20th century and is, to a growing share of Democrats, too milquetoast. Hakeem Jeffries, the House minority leader, is resented less, but he is not wildly popular, either. Democratic voters, at the moment, seem to be nursing nostalgia for Nancy Pelosi, who announced recently she was not seeking reelection. Her dynamism would be hard for anyone to match.
If many of these Democratic voters hope, come later this year or next, either man is replaced as leader, they are going to be disappointed. Neither have any serious rivals in their caucuses, and the actual Democratic members of Congress will, on the balance, always seek to avoid bloody leadership fights. As long as Schumer wants to be leader, he will remain so. What could change the calculus is if Democrats pull off a significant upset and take back the Senate next year. In the event this does happen and fresh blood floods the caucus, there could be pressure on Schumer to step aside. Some Senate candidates, like Graham Platner in Maine, have said they wouldn’t vote for Schumer if they won.
But assuming Democrats, as forecasted, retake the House but not the Senate, Schumer will probably hold on to his post for at least the last two years of his six-year term. An ambitious Democrat probably isn’t going to battle an old lion who is popular with the caucus just to lead a minority. The real opening will come in 2028, when Schumer will have to decide whether to seek reelection. A local political powerhouse who has never lost an election in his life, Schumer might be wise to retire rather than run again. Always a lock to win reelection, Schumer might now be doomed in his beloved home state.
A poll in April from the liberal firm Data for Progress showed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez beating Schumer by 19 points. Data for Progress is more supportive of Ocasio-Cortez than Schumer, but it is still a reputable pollster that is capturing what is, anecdotally, very real: widespread dissatisfaction among Democratic voters with Schumer. Zohran Mamdani’s shock mayoral victory was, among other things a repudiation of party elites, as New Yorkers who wouldn’t identify as democratic socialists flocked to him because he was so plainly outside the ossified Establishment. Schumer, unlike Jeffries, could not bring himself to endorse Mamdani. If Ocasio-Cortez can marshal anything like the turnout Mamdani saw in the June primary, she would race past Schumer. AOC could end up running for president, but taking on Schumer might be the safer bet. If she raises enough cash and keeps polling strongly, she could even force him to retire.
Even if Schumer believes Ocasio-Cortez is too lefty for the statewide electorate — there are Democrats in the suburbs she’ll have to court — other prominent rivals loom. Could Attorney General Letitia James, who has won a competitive statewide primary already, decide she’d like to be a senator? James, who has been indicted by Trump’s Justice Department and won a civil suit against him, is popular among rank-and-file Democrats and revered as an anti-Trump fighter. She’d be New York’s first Black senator and enjoys both strong working relationships with her party’s leftmost flank — she campaigned enthusiastically with Mamdani — and with center-left liberals, who appreciate her willingness to confront Trump. Kirsten Gillibrand, New York’s junior senator, would also be vulnerable to a primary challenge, but Democrats will have to wait until 2030 to take her on.
Schumer will turn 78 in 2028, which, until not very long ago, wasn’t too much of an impediment to reelection. The Democratic Party has been chock-full of lawmakers in their 70s and 80s, and voters have appeared to at least tolerate this status quo. What shifted them, ultimately, was Joe Biden’s disastrous decision to seek reelection. Now, resentment of the gerontocracy is everywhere. Pelosi, at 85, wisely recognized this and won’t seek another term. Come 2027 or so, Schumer could do the same and embark on a farewell tour. An open primary would be waged in his absence.
That would be the most bloodless path. Let’s see if Schumer actually takes it.
