This Is Where It Is Heading Next

• Bitcoin (BTC) fell from $126,000 in early October back to $100,000 after climbing from $75,000 earlier in the year.

• 55% of traditional hedge funds now hold digital assets compared to 47% in 2024.

• Tightening liquidity from the U.S. Treasury’s cash buildup and the government shutdown contributed to Bitcoin’s recent decline.

• Some investors get rich while others struggle because they never learned there are two completely different strategies to building wealth. Don’t make the same mistake, learn about both here.

After a red-hot summer, it looks like “crypto winter” is here and Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is back in the headlines. The BTC price is moving fast, but not necessarily in a positive direction.

This raises the question of whether it’s time to buy the Bitcoin dip or brace for lower prices. Since BTC recently touched $100,000, it’s halfway between $75,000 and $125,000 — but which target will Bitcoin hit first? Opinions vary, but following the money flow could provide crucial clues about Bitcoin’s next big move.

Currently, $100,000 the key battleground between the Bitcoin buyers and sellers. Because it has so many zeros, the $100,000 price level has an emotional significance and is, without a doubt, being closely monitored by cryptocurrency traders.

From January through early November of this year, Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 has been wild and sometime unnerving. The BTC price started off 2025 near $100,000, then dipped to $75,000, rallied to $126,000 in early October.

However, Bitcoin buyers hoping that October would be “Up-tober” were disappointed. In recent weeks, the BTC price has fallen back to $100,000, marking a round trip from the beginning of the year.

Future price predictions are all over the map, with Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick evidently in the bullish camp. Not long ago, Kendrick proclaimed that Bitcoin’s recent dip under $100,000 may be the “last one ever.”

If Kendrick’s thesis that decentralized finance will eventually overtake traditional finance holds up, then Bitcoin’s long-term target ought to be much higher than $125,000. Still, there are some bearish factors to keep in mind, so let’s explore that topic right now.

It’s difficult to pinpoint the main driver of the recent Bitcoin price pullback. The U.S. government shutdown is a likely culprit, but a surge in the relative strength of the dollar is another contributing factor.

Complicating matters further, it could be argued that the dollar’s strength and anxiety over the prolonged government shutdown are interrelated factors. Also somewhere in the mix are vague fears about technology stocks being too richly valued; market participants often tend to lump tech stocks and Bitcoin into the same psychological bucket.

Along with all of those factors, analysts with Citigroup (NYSE:C) point to tightening liquidity conditions as a problem for Bitcoin holders. The U.S. Treasury’s has shored up its cash balance, thereby draining liquidity from the banking system and putting pressure on risk-on assets. However, the Citigroup analysts suggest that liquidity could soon improve and this may buoy the BTC price.

Thomas “Tom” Lee, co-founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, put all of these pieces together to form his own theory. “Bitcoin is very sensitive to market liquidity and also perceptions about risk appetite,” Lee explained.

In addition, Lee considered “headwinds building right from the government shutdown to a hawkish Fed cut” as notable factors weighing down the Bitcoin price. At the same time, Lee remains optimistic about Bitcoin, declaring, “[H]eadwinds become tailwinds when you can resolve these things.”

We’ve discussed a range of contributing factors that could put Bitcoin down to $75,000 or up to $125,000. Yet, there’s one more consideration and it could be the deciding factor.

As the old saying goes, follow the “big money” — i.e., the institutional players. According to the Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA), 55% of surveyed traditional hedge funds have exposure to digital assets in 2025, up from 47% in 2024.

Moreover, 47% of surveyed institutional investors said that the evolving U.S. regulatory environment is encouraging them to increase their digital-asset allocations. Plus, the AIMA reported that “tokenization is gaining traction in alternative investments,” with 52% of surveyed hedge funds “now expressing interest.”

The AIMA concluded from these survey results that digital assets (and presumably Bitcoin) are “now moving from the margins toward the mainstream of hedge fund and institutional investing.” Plus, a confluence of crypto-positive factors have prompted the AIMA to find that “conviction in digital assets as an investable asset class” among institutional entities “are clearly on the rise.”

Following the sentiment and money flow of hedge funds isn’t a guarantee of success for Bitcoin investors. Nevertheless, it’s often a smart strategy to align one’s own strategies with those of the big-money players.

Based on this more than anything else, I expect the BTC price to head toward $125,000 rather than fall to $75,000. If Bitcoin does sink to $75,000, though, don’t be too surprised if hedge funds snap up some tokens at a discount price even if retail traders panic and sell.