This graph shows the historical tropical cyclone frequency as a function of day of the year, with all tropical cyclones shown in red and hurricane-strength storms only shown in yellow. The background shows Hurricane Francie over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, September 11, 2024. (Credit: NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-East)
The laws of physics aren’t changing. But the Earth’s conditions are different than what they used to be, and so are hurricanes as a result.
Here in our Universe, there’s a formula for understanding how any physical phenomenon works. If we can come to know the fundamental rules governing any physical system, and if those rules remain constant over time, then we can input the parameters that we have at any moment and evolve that system forwards in time, allowing us to predict its future behavior. These laws enable certain phenomena to arise as long as specific physical conditions are met:
gravitation and orbital parameters determine the tides,
solar ejecta and the magnetic connection between the Earth and Sun determine the aurorae,
and the interface between Earth’s windy atmosphere and the warm ocean waters determine the formation and properties of hurricanes.
The specifics of whatever conditions are in place at any moment in time help determine things — like frequency and intensity — of any such physical phenomenon.
For chaotic systems like hurricanes, there’s inevitably going to be a certain amount of variation and…
