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  • Will a Generic Republican Beat Tester and Flip the Senate?

    Will a Generic Republican Beat Tester and Flip the Senate?

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    The novice versus the old pro.
    Photo: Ben Allan Smith/AP Photo

    Republicans in Washington went to a lot of trouble to recruit Tim Sheehy to run for the U.S. Senate in Montana against veteran Democrat Jon Tester. They were reportedly dazzled by the young and photogenic politician’s biography, which included serving in Afghanistan as a decorated Navy SEAL and launching a very successful aerial firefighting business after moving from Minnesota to Montana ten years ago. He was close to congressman and former Interior secretary Ryan Zinke, but the real motive for Sheehy’s recruitment was to sideline Zinke’s U.S. House colleague Matt Rosendale, a cranky arch-conservative who had lost to Tester in 2018. It was a personal priority for Montana’s other senator, Steve Daines, who chairs the GOP’s Senate campaign committee.

    It all came together, and when it looked like Rosendale would ignore all the invitations to go away and run for the Senate anyway, Donald Trump himself big-footed him out of the race with a quick endorsement of Sheehy. The young challenger has been given almost unlimited financial support; an estimated $50 million has been ponied up by pro-Sheehy super-PACs in what is easily going to be the most expensive per-vote Senate race ever.

    The focus on Montana isn’t surprising; it’s the most likely tipping-point state for Republicans to flip control of the Senate. Right now Democrats control the chamber by a 51-49 margin, but the seat of retiring West Virginia Democratic senator Joe Manchin is universally expected to go to a Republican in November. And while there are other potentially vulnerable Democratic senators running this year, only Tester and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown are from states Trump is almost certain to win handily. Since Montana went for Trump by 16 points in 2020 and by 20 points in 2016, it’s Tester who has the biggest bull’s-eye painted on his back. With ticket splitting steadily declining in this era of partisan polarization, that’s a big deficit for the Democrat to overcome.

    Sure enough, the FiveThirtyEight polling averages show Trump leading Kamala Harris in Montana by nearly 17 points. And so it’s unsurprising that the same averages show Tim Sheehy with a four-point lead over Tester. The trend lines are pretty unmistakable. RMG Research released a poll in mid-August showing Tester leading 49 to 44 percent; the same firm’s September poll showed Sheehy leading 50 to 43 percent.

    So is Sheehy fulfilling his wonder-boy promise? That’s debatable. His rags-to-riches story took a bit of a hit when it was disclosed he had grown up in a multimillion-dollar lakeside home in Minnesota, and that his Montana business had received some big subsidies from his family’s wealth. More importantly, recordings recently emerged of the candidate making derogatory comments about Native Americans — in a state where Native Americans make up 6 percent of the population.

    Sheehy has allowed that these remarks were “insensitive,” but when challenged by Tester during a debate to apologize, he responded: “Will you apologize for opening the border?”

    As Election Day approaches, there are growing signs that Sheehy is limiting his exposure to any uncontrolled environment where he might make a mistake, as CNN reports:

    Sheehy rarely grants interviews to local or national press, while his campaign doesn’t discuss his schedule or provide information about his events, which tend to be closed affairs … [He’s] running in a state that has seen a surge of new residents, which political observers here believe benefits the GOP. Having an “R” next to his name could be enough to unseat Tester and flip the Senate — absent any major missteps.

    So the prize GOP recruit of the 2024 Senate class is winding up his campaign hiding out and basically running as a generic Republican. The party might as well have let Matt Rosendale have the nomination, given him a large fortune for campaign ads, and told him to paint by the numbers until voters voted.

    It would serve Republican wire-pullers right if Tester defied the odds as he has done before (in 2012, he won by running seven points ahead of Barack Obama). He’s done what he can to distance himself from the national ticket and is a well-known commodity in his state, unlike Sheehy, the shiny new toy that has developed a bit of tarnish.

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  • Gallagher Premiership: Sale and England wing Tom Roebuck scores twice in win over Gloucester | Rugby Union News

    Gallagher Premiership: Sale and England wing Tom Roebuck scores twice in win over Gloucester | Rugby Union News

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    England wing Tom Roebuck scored two tries as Sale secured a breathless 31-27 bonus-point win over Gloucester in the Gallagher Premiership.

    The 23-year-old, named earlier in the day in Steve Borthwick’s England training squad, struck either side of half-time as the Sharks bounced back from last week’s defeat at Saracens.

    England colleague Luke Cowan-Dickie also crossed twice in a five-try show from Sale as they held off Gloucester’s late surge.

    Gloucester, who lost last week’s hat-trick hero Christian Wade to a first-half rib injury, grabbed two bonus points with a 78th-minute try from Max Llewellyn but could not breach the Sale defence in added time.

    Sale led 14-8 at half time, coming from behind after Tomos Williams had given Gloucester the lead with a sixth-minute try.

    Roebuck, who won his first England cap off the bench against Japan in June, replied for Sale 11 minutes later, scooping up Robert du Preez’s pass to slide over in the right-hand corner.

    Roebuck turned provider four minutes before the break, scything though from Du Preez’s inside ball before putting scrum-half Gus Warr away for the try.

    Roebuck went over again in the 48th minute, crossing after Arron Reed’s bending run in midfield had pulled apart Gloucester’s defence.

    Gloucester conjured a breakaway try from their own half just before the hour-mark with Williams grabbing his second after hacking on replacement Charlie Atkinson’s kick.

    Sale rumbled in from 15 metres out for a lineout drive score in the 64th minute from Cowan-Dickie, who went over again a mere seven minutes later.

    Replacement Caolan Englefield grabbed a third try late on for Gloucester and they added a fourth from left wing Llewellyn but time ran out on them.

    Northampton secure thrilling comeback win over Quins

    Ollie Sleightholme, last season’s leading try scorer in the Gallagher Premiership, got off the mark for this campaign with two tries in Northampton’s 33-29 comeback victory over Harlequins.

    In a thrilling clash, two tries from Quins and England star Marcus Smith, playing at full-back, threatened Saints’ year-long unbeaten home record.

    However, 21 unanswered points from the defending champions – error-strewn before the break – during the second half ensured they made it 17 consecutive wins at Franklin’s Gardens.

    Harlequins ensured a tense finish when Will Porter gathered Dino Lamb’s wild off-load infield to close the gap to four points with seven minutes left, but the champions were able to hold on for back-to-back wins.

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  • AI chatbots are getting worse over time — academic paper

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    A dwindling consumer interest in chatbots caused a drop in AI-sector revenues during the second business quarter of 2024.

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  • 3 Reasons to Buy Nvidia Stock Before October 7

    3 Reasons to Buy Nvidia Stock Before October 7

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    It’s no secret that Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks have dominated the market for the last few years. With firms like PwC — one of the “big four” accounting firms — making claims that AI could add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030 — the hype makes sense.

    The revolution’s poster child, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), saw its stock skyrocket nearly 1000% from late 2022 to today, but the last few months have not been as kind. After reaching its highest peak in June, shares of Nvidia are down about 10%. More significant market fears mixed with slower growth have caused some to cool on the once red-hot stock. So, where to go from here?

    Nvidia’s AI Summit is a big day for the company and the industry

    As the de facto leader of the entire industry, Nvidia needs to continue to do just that: lead. The 2024 AI Summit, which begins October 7, is a chance for the company to bring together some of the biggest faces and best minds in the industry to help push AI forward, all while keeping itself front and center. It’s a chance to communicate Nvidia’s vision not just to other industry leaders, but to the public at large.

    One of the primary questions investors have for the company — and it’s a very legitimate one — is: Are the real-world applications of AI that impactful? Is the incredible cost of AI hardware worth the investment? The summit will be a chance for Nvidia to showcase the myriad ways AI can be used to return real value. It’s a chance to justify the enormous cost of its chips and, ultimately, the price of its shares.

    The event in and of itself is unlikely to move the needle, but it may help ease some fears and get investors thinking about the possibilities and power of AI. Luckily, the event isn’t happening in a vacuum. Here are a few reasons why Nvidia is in a prime position to capitalize on the event.

    1. Nvidia’s Blackwell chips are coming

    In Nvidia’s only major snafu since the AI boom took off, the company announced its latest line of chips, dubbed Blackwell, was delayed. Issues in its manufacturing meant they wouldn’t be shipped on time. Nvidia assured that shipments would only be delayed a quarter. Despite these reassurances, some investors worried the issues were more fundamental and the delay would be longer.

    It seems those fears were unfounded. According to a recent report by ​​Tom’s Hardware, the company is ready to ship the first batch as early as December, only about six weeks behind the original schedule, although these reports have yet to be confirmed by Nvidia. If true, it would do a lot to ease investors’ fears and show that the company went above and beyond in fixing its mistake.

    Still, even if they don’t ship until later in the quarter, the rollout will be huge for the company regardless. Their impact will be felt immediately, with billions in sales expected before the end of its Q4.

    2. Nvidia’s vision is its greatest asset

    It’s easy to get bogged down in numbers and fixate on balance sheets and income statements, and while these are extremely important when evaluating a business, certain intangibles are often what makes a company great, like vision. Nvidia has it in spades. Under the leadership of CEO Jensen Huang, the company has been at the forefront of several macro movements in tech. Huang saw back in the early 90s that computer graphics would be huge. The company’s GPUs — graphics processing units — are a big part of what enabled the video game industry to evolve to where it is today.

    This vision is why the company controls roughly 90% of today’s AI chip market. Nvidia saw that its GPUs could do much more than push the bounds of computer graphics; they could power a new technological revolution. It’s why the company caught its competition sleeping. Since the current AI boom took off in late 2022, Nvidia’s chips have consistently been miles ahead. Other chipmakers have been playing catch-up ever since.

    There was relative parity between Nvidia and its longtime rival AMD for decades. Not so anymore; last year, Nvidia made more in profit than AMD made in total revenue. The difference right now is stark, but remember, if Nvidia is profiting much more than its rival, it can then afford to spend more on research and marketing to widen its moat and fend off competitors.

    3. Considering its prospects, Nvidia is reasonably priced

    I know I just said not to get bogged down in the numbers, but they are still important. How is the market valuing Nvidia right now? At a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 56, Nvidia isn’t cheap, but given its current pace of growth, a trailing P/E isn’t really the best metric for us. Its forward P/E — that is, a P/E that accounts for its expected earnings in the next 12 months rather than the last 12 — is just above 30. That’s not bad in the world of tech. It’s just about where Apple and Amazon sit.

    Another useful valuation is the PEG ratio, which you get by dividing a company’s P/E by its expected earnings growth. This is an excellent metric for companies with a lot of growth potential. As a very general rule, a PEG under 1 is what we’re looking for. Nvidia’s is 0.94.

    Nvidia has plenty of room to deliver the kind of growth that can justify its current valuation. To be sure, metrics are not the be-all and end-all. They are imperfect instruments, and of course, metrics that rely on expected earnings are especially imperfect — the future is anything but guaranteed. I believe Nvidia will continue to outperform the market for some time.

    Should you invest $1,000 in Nvidia right now?

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    3 Reasons to Buy Nvidia Stock Before October 7 was originally published by The Motley Fool

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  • The U.S. port strike is over. This is what it means for transportation and shipping stocks.

    The U.S. port strike is over. This is what it means for transportation and shipping stocks.

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    The end of the three-day U.S. port strike has implications for a number of transportation and shipping stocks, say analysts.

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  • Don’t Just Negotiate Your Salary — These 5 Things Are Negotiable Too

    Don’t Just Negotiate Your Salary — These 5 Things Are Negotiable Too

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    employees staff workers high five
    By Flamingo Images / Shutterstock.com

    If you’ve ever negotiated a salary, that’s great! But did you know your salary is only part of your bargaining mix? A job’s compensation includes a lot more than money — and you can negotiate benefits too. To negotiate benefits, you’ll want to think about your overall compensation — quantitative and qualitative benefits. Quantitative compensation is countable things like salary…

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  • Light & Wonder CEO Says Company Pulling ‘Dragon Train’ Slots in North America

    Light & Wonder CEO Says Company Pulling ‘Dragon Train’ Slots in North America

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    Posted on: October 4, 2024, 04:32h. 

    Last updated on: October 4, 2024, 04:32h.

    Shares of Light & Wonder (NASDAQ: LNW) jumped 4.39% on above-average volume Friday after CEO Matt Wilson updated investors on the company’s next steps relating to “Dragon Train” litigation.

    Light & Wonder
    Light & Wonder CEO Matt Wilson. He said the company is working to convert “Dragon Train” slots in North America following a court order. (Image: LinkedIn)

    In late September, Aristocrat Technologies won a preliminary injunction that bars Light & Wonder from further leases and sales of “Dragon Train” slots. Judge Gloria Navarro of the US District Court for the District of Nevada ruled Aristocrat is highly likely to prove its competitor “misappropriated Aristocrat’s trade secrets” from its “Dragon Link” games in developing “Dragon Train.”

    In a video posted to L&W’s investor relations website, Wilson said the company is working with North American customers to pull “Dragon Train” machines and convert those devices to other titles offered by the gaming device manufacturer.

    We’re working very diligently with customers to convert those games out, in compliance with the judge’s order,” he said. “We are working hard with customers to install these new games quickly so that Dragon Train is out of the fleet, and that’s our immediate priority.”

    Wilson added Light & Wonder has 33,000 leased gaming machines in North America with “Dragon Train” devices accounting for a mid-single digit percentage of that group.

    ‘Dragon Train’ Australia Update

    In North America, L&W is attempting to convert “Dragon Train” slots to titles such as “Dancing Drums,” “Invaders,” and “Wizard of Oz,” among others.

    In Australia — Aristocrat’s home country — L&W halted sales of “Dragon Train” devices and Wilson said the company has been in contact with some customers about potential conversions to “Huff N’ Puff” and “Lion Link” machines as well as “Shenlong Unleashed,” which the company recently previewed at the Asian Gaming Expo.

    “We’re really looking to make sure that we capture as much of that opportunity in the fourth quarter and beyond as we start to scale out new versions of our products,” said Wilson in the video.

    L&W’s Dragon family of games found success with bettors in Australia, and some analysts said the new series could be a catalyst for upside to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) estimates. Aristocrat is pursuing litigation against L&W in that country and earlier this year, a federal court there granted it presuit discovery against L&W.

    ‘Dragon Train 2.0’ Plans

    The Light & Wonder chief executive officer also told investors that the company is working on “Dragon Train 2.0” slot machines in compliance with the court order with the expectation that the game will be part of the firm’s product lineup for years to come.

    “We’re working actively on this right now. It’s a very high priority for us,” noted the CEO. “We’re working quickly to get that out.”

    Analysts have pointed out that “Dragon Train” represented just a small percentage of L&W’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). Wilson said it’s “just one of many successful franchises” the company creates, adding that L&W achieved top ship share in the North American market in the second quarter exclusive of “Dragon Train” commercialization.

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