Redfin data shows home prices still skyrocketing in migration hotspots – but not in this California city


Among the countless changes that swept across the U.S. during the pandemic were increased migration out of many big population centers – including the Bay Area – and a record surge in home prices nationwide.

But how do home price increases in migration magnets compare to the large metropolitan areas that are losing residents, like the Bay Area? Are more affordable areas becoming less so, as new buyers rush into the housing market? Are home-price increases more tempered in areas seeing lots of departures?

An analysis of data from the 25 largest U.S. metro areas collected by real estate listings website Redfin shows that these trends are often true, including in the Bay Area.

However, some areas have proved to be surprising exceptions – among them Sacramento, a popular destination for Bay Area residents whose housing market, red-hot early in the pandemic, has recently cooled significantly.

Using data from Redfin, we calculated new residents per 10,000 people in the 25 largest U.S. metro areas based on data from April 2022, and the average percent increase of median home sale prices from April 2021 to April 2022. Using its search data, Redfin calculates estimated migration numbers based on U.S. Census data.

As defined by Redfin, the Bay Area is part of a U.S. Census statistical area that combines the metro areas of San Francisco and San Jose, and encompasses the nine Bay Area counties plus five more: Merced, San Benito, San Joaquin, Santa Cruz and Stanislaus. Of the 25 markets examined, the San Francisco-San Jose metro area showed the highest residents per 10,000 looking to leave the area in the past year, at -33.3. During that time, home sale prices in the area increased year-over-year by 12.6%.

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